A Quick Thought

I saw a video clip recently of a basketball fan hitting a half court shot to win $77,777.00 at a Phoenix Suns game.

So it made me think. If I had the opportunity to shoot a free throw to win money or a shot from half court to win more money, what would the dollar amount have to be to make me shoot from half court?

When I used to shoot frequently my free throw percentage was around 75%. Now (after barely touching a basketball for 5 years) I would guess it would be close to 50%. I’m not sure what my half court percentage would be, but I’m sure it would be very low. Even when I was playing frequently I didn’t hit many of those. Adding in the three point line would make it even more interesting. . .

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2 Comments

Filed under Thoughts

2 responses to “A Quick Thought

  1. thebylog

    Calculate the expected value. At 50% from the free throw line, with a $100 reward, you would expect, on average $50.

    So let’s say you figure you could make 5% from half court. You’d have to get $1000 for a half-court made basket to give you the same expected return.

    • I think some compensation is needed for “I’ll probably airball and look like an idiot” factor that goes with the half court shot. . . This would be influenced by location. If you miss a half court shot in Philly you’ll probably get booed heartily, while a missed half court shot in Arizona would probably draw polite applause.

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